ASR Analytics at the NACAC Conference in Baltimore
September 24, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Thank you for visiting ASR Analytics at the NACAC Conference in Baltimore. Many of you have asked for additional information to about our strategic reporting and predictive analytic solutions. We will update this page with a schedule of web demonstrations so that you may share with others on your campus.
Here are some quick links to more about our solutions:
Strategic Recruitment Reporting
The winner of the TomTom GPS will be announced here at the conclusion of the show.
User-Friendly Predictive Analytics Recruitment Solution Unveiled at NACAC Conference
September 23, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Baltimore, MD September 23, 2009 — While attending the National Association for College Admission Counselors (NACAC) 65th Annual Conference, ASR unveiled its new Predictive Analytics Solution for Recruitment and Admission. The new solution is designed to put the power of advanced analytics directly into the hands of enrollment management professionals for better evidence-based decision making. ASR’s Recruitment Analytic Models leverage institution specific data to estimate statistically valid forecasts of future enrollment, net tuition revenue, and even retention rates. These models provide enrollment managers with evidence based predictions for shaping the incoming class with the ‘ideal’ students for their institution.
ASR’s solution is different. Admissions professionals will be able to interact with the models to build various enrollment scenarios and change the model’s assumptions. This helps them understand the inevitable trade-offs that can happen when they simulate various policy ‘levers.’ ASR’s solution focuses on making these models accessible to non-technical admissions professionals. Most of the solutions on the market require an IT professional to extract data in a specific file format to provide to a third party that estimates an analytic model. The institution receives a static report to guide planning decisions, but it doesn’t let them simulate a variety of scenarios.
ASR’s new Predictive Analytics Solution for Recruitment and Admission will help the institution develop its recruitment strategy and at the same time enable better day-to-day tactical decision making. The solution will help institutions to:
- Identify causal factors for enrollment
- Analyze a prospect pool for more effective list purchases
- Simulate a multitude of enrollment scenarios
- Forecast enrollment on a daily basis throughout the recruitment lifecycle
- Perform decision impact analysis and assessment
There were three main goals in development of the framework:
- Provide a user-friendly way for busy enrollment management professionals to interact with predictive models to aid in institutional planning.
- Produce a solution that works with existing tools and technology already in use at the institution.
- Eliminate the need for clients to pay new recurring software license fees.
The secret to successfully meeting these goals lies in ASR’s ability to develop analytic solutions that help institutions integrate their people, process, and technology. “We think it’s critically important that advanced analytics are put directly into the hands of those that do the planning and make the decisions” said, Dr. Peter Arena, ASR’s founding principal and chief statistician for higher education. “Using simple, point-and-click interfaces – enrollment professionals can bring data and information to life. The result is a rich user experience that makes it easier to visualize data, simulate decisions before they are made, and ultimately optimize recruiting.”
To get people started with predictive analytics, ASR is offering a special NACAC conference rate for 50% off the company’s Prospect Scoring Report service. Attendees can visit the ASR booth for more details and to see a demonstration of the full solution.
To learn more about ASR’s solutions for higher education visit:
ASR’s Predictive Analytics Solution for Recruitment and Admissions
ASR’s solutions for Higher Education
ASR’s business intelligence blog
About ASR Analytics, LLC
ASR Analytics LLC (ASR) provides high-end business intelligence and analytic consulting services to clients in higher education. ASR aims to provide institutional decision makers with self-service decision support tools to help them be more effective in their recruitment, retention, and accountability initiatives. To learn more about our solutions visit: http://www.asranalytics.com/
Recruiting with Predictive Analytics in Uncertain Times
September 22, 2009 | Leave a Comment
It’s late September and the new academic year has settled upon us. Admission offices across the land are already busy recruiting the next set of classes, while at the same time conducting postmortems on the good and the bad of the most recent campaign. Some institutions have found the 2009 recruitment cycle to be quite unpredictable.
Recently, the Providence Journal ran a story about the difficulty some Rhode Island institutions had enrolling and managing the inflow of new students for the fall semester. This, despite the fact that nationally the number of graduating high school students remains at nearly record highs (although down slightly from the previous 2 or 3 record years). What was driving the instability? The economy, of course.
Private institutions in Rhode Island, according to the article, seem to have been hit the hardest and many were short of their goals. What struck me, however, were the tactics that were used by admission officers to stave off the potential declines. Seemingly, institutions broadly applied a combination of two tactics; either, 1) increase the amount of institutional gift aid to effectively discount the tuition, or, 2) lower admission standards to increase the eligible pool of applicants. Sometimes they did both.
While I may be over simplifying the true remedies attempted by these institutions, I can tell you from experience that the typical responses to shifts in the marketplace for many admission officers tend to be linear and broadly applied:
- When the demographic pool shrinks – buy more search names.
- If times are tough economically – increase the discount.
- When the numbers don’t come through as expected and the cause is not clear – lower admission standards.
The problem with these approaches are that they often conflict with other strategic goals of the institution (e.g. quality, diversity, etc.).
Enter predictive analytics. Although this may seem contradictory to the premise that 2009 was an unpredictable year, statistical modeling techniques are not only warranted in times like these, but even more necessary than during ‘normal’ recruitment cycles. You see, predictive modeling does more than forecast aggregate numbers. The idea is really to understand the key drivers of enrollment using mathematical models. Once you truly understand who and why students enroll at your institution, you can better segment or target the audience and more effectively recruit the students that are more likely to enroll.
As a result, you will be able to address the problems I’ve listed above with more surgical precision. So instead of giving a blanket discount to all accepted students, you will be able to identify the students that will benefit the most from the award through the analysis of a combination of driving factors.
“What-if scenario” decision support applications make it possible to interact with predictive models so that you can “war-game” various scenarios. So, for example, you could make the output of your model more conservative in an uncertain recruitment cycle by applying limits or weighing certain variables (like household income) more heavily in your enrollment propensity models.
The lesson is that there is almost always a way to use data to your advantage, even in turbulent times. Broadly applying tactics across all of the prospective student body should be a last resort.
IBM Jettisons U2 Database Division – Beginning of the End?
September 21, 2009 | Leave a Comment
As an IT professional, how do you know when it is time to not only consider migrating off a legacy technology but to quickly make plans to jump ship? How long before development and ultimately support come to an ignoble end? Nothing is certain in this industry as I have come to learn over the years, but the announcement last week by IBM of the sale of the U2 division offers some illustrative clues. The first is the remarkably short press release. I guess there really wasn’t much to say since U2 is not well known — even within IBM itself.
Perhaps a little context first. The U2 product line consists primarily of the Universe and UniData multi-value nested relational databases and related development tools. They can trace their heritage back into the 1960’s as an offshoot of the Pick architecture. In short, there’s a long history with numerous established commercial applications using it. Perhaps the best known is the DataStage ETL tool. IBM purchased the conglomeration of products in 2001 after a turbulent period of buyouts and mergers. At the time there was a large worldwide license base generating healthy recurring revenues coupled with a strong development and partner community. Those invested in the technology were relieved to be under the umbrella of a large, stable, recognized brand. It seemed credibility, new investments, and a future were assured. But that was before Microsoft entered the application database world with force and the shift toward low cost PC servers. You can see where this train is going.
Back to the writing on the wall. Whenever a large, established player in the software world like IBM sells assets to a global company that nobody has heard of, I see that as a red flag. Rocket Software? Let’s do a poll. That’s what I thought. Though, there are other companies like them specializing in niche markets like mainframe software. Ever heard of ASG? These companies don’t need marketing and name recognition because they aren’t trying to compete head to head with the current technologies of the day. They’re making a business selling into and supporting the products people invested in years ago.
Yet, one has to conclude the license growth and maintenance renewals hit a concrete ceiling and have come crashing down in recent years, especially as many of U2’s largest application VARs have provided alternative so-called “industry standard” database options like SQL Server for their applications. These have proved far more popular with new customers and existing customers alike. The U2 product line just can’t generate the numbers being demanded by a company like IBM. So out it goes. However, a company like Rocket with a very different corporate strategy and cost structure, probably can make a go of it for awhile. But, I wouldn’t expect to see much in new innovation. In the Higher Education ERP market this will have the greatest impact on Datatel customers and to lesser extent Jenzabar clients who will now need to accelerate their plans to move to alternate database platforms.
It seems U2 has been put into palliative care. No one can be certain if there will be significant changes in the near or medium term, but the ultimate prognosis is still the same. Technologies are moving forward and fast leaving U2 behind. The IBM press release trumpeting Rocket’s ability to “stimulate growth” is a veiled marketeering attempt to put life in a terminally ill product line.
ASR Analytics Named to Washington Technology Magazine’s Fast 50
September 8, 2009 | Leave a Comment
Recently, we learned that ASR would be named to Washington Technology Magazine’s Fast 50, a list of the fastest growing companies serving the U.S. government. While it is certainly gratifying to be provided with such recognition, it was especially exciting to see that the magazine chose ASR as one of a handful of companies on the list to spotlight.
Washington Technology recognized that the story of ASR is built on a foundation of trust. A trust that we try to build with each of our clients and partners.
The following is a press release of the announcement:
Potomac, MD, September 8, 2009: ASR Analytics LLC, a consulting firm providing advanced analytic services to public and private sector clients, was recently named to Washington Technology Magazine’s Fast 50. ASR was ranked 22nd among the fastest growing companies serving the United States government. The magazine’s Fast 50 rankings evaluate the growth of small businesses over a five year period.
ASR was also highlighted in an article appearing on Washington Technology’s website (http://www.washingtontechnology.com/Articles/2009/08/31/Fast-50-ASR.aspx). The article noted that ASR fills a unique niche for its clients in government, higher education, and health care, helping them to integrate enterprise data with predictive analytics.
The magazine cited the company’s work with the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (USUHS) as an example of its specialized work. ASR worked with the medical school to develop a long-term career outcome study of its graduates. The data from the study was integrated with data from the institution’s student information system. Predictive analytics were applied to identify patterns and trends that administrators used to make decisions for recruitment and student retention.
Trust was another key aspect of ASR’s success noted by the article’s author. Forging deep relationships and advancing solutions that emphasize people and process as much as technology helps the company build a high-degree of trust with its clients. “In times like now, when budgets are tight, [organizations] are going to turn to the people they trust,” said Dr. Peter Arena, one of ASR’s founding principals. “That is the kind of reputation we are trying to build.”
About ASR Analytics, LLC
ASR Analytics LLC (ASR) provides specialized business intelligence and analytic consulting services to clients in the public and private sectors. ASR aims to provide policy and decision makers with self-service decision support tools to ensure regulatory compliance and increase organizational effectiveness. To learn more about our solutions visit: http://www.asranalytics.com/.